2014 Official Year End Performance for Forex Profit Monster/Effect of Swiss National Bank and the Swiss Franc "depegging" from the Euro

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(The portfolio of currency pairs being traded on the 4 Hour chart with Forex Profit Monster consist of:  EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, GBP/CHF, AUD/CAD.

This portfolio will remain the same each quarter unless stated otherwise.

All results INCLUDE transaction costs... THIS IS REAL LIVE TRADING so all costs, spreads, slippage, interest rate swap, etc... are included in the results.)

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In the last post I mentioned that I was up about 54% for 2014.  The final results are in, and I finished the year up 55.05% with Forex Profit Monster.  While it was a spectacular year, I do see some changes in store for me in 2015.

The amount of money that I am currently trading is actually getting to be a respectable amount (for a retail trader anyway :-P).  I've come a long way from the guy who started out with less than a couple thousand dollars several years ago... so, as of this post I've changed my time frame from the 4 Hour chart to the Daily chart.

The reason I was trading the 4 Hour chart to begin with was to increase my opportunities and grow my account faster.  As far as I'm concerned I've accomplished this... and now I'm more interested in reducing some of the transaction costs and equity curve volatility by trading less.  The current trades I have open on many of the pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD) seem like they are long term trends... and now would be a good time to continue them on the Daily time frame.

I am also considering making some changes to the portfolio that is currently being traded after doing some research on a new system.  I feel there are some pairs that have performed well over the past 25-30 years on both Forex Profit Monster and the new system... and will likely be adding them in the very near future.  The size of my account will also allow some additions to the portfolio... so again, the timing is right.

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Now some comments about the Swiss revaluing their currency by "depegging" from the Euro.
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I know it was tough for a lot of retail traders who lost their accounts because of the huge move... heck, it even put some brokers out of business (R.I.P. Alpari UK).  In fact my own broker, FXCM, almost went belly up as well (I was moved from IBFX to FXCM last summer when Monex Group decided to end its MT4 retail Forex arm of the business).  It was a close call, but FXCM has gotten a new influx of capital to continue operations... and there is even a rumor that they may try to "revive" Alpari UK to give themselves a foothold in the brokerage business in England.

With all that happened last week because of the Swiss "ambush", the news wasn't so bad for me personally.

One of the lessons I've learned (and tried to pass on to others for the past several years) is to TRADE RESPONSIBLY... USING THE PROPER SIZE FOR YOUR ACCOUNT AND NUMBER OF VEHICLES YOU'RE GOING TO TRADE.  Because I follow my own advice (which not all traders do) I only suffered about a 22% draw down from the "Black Swan" announcement from the Swiss.  Most of that was lost in a long USD/CHF position... and it was thousands of dollars in open equity profit... not really much in the way of cash after I was able to close out the position.

While I can't say that I "jumped for joy" over several thousand dollars in profit disappearing in the blink of an eye and an immediate draw down of 22%, compared to what happened to many others that day it certainly could have been much, much worse.  I've also recovered some of that draw down already through other open trades and am currently only down about 13%.  Even better news is that the draw down was from a higher equity high than I ended 2014 with, because I was up almost 15% on the year already for 2015 when the Swiss announcement was made.  What this adds up to is while I lost a lot of open equity profit over this mess... I'm really only down a couple of percentage points from where I finished 2014... and only a few hundred dollars in cash.  My new mantra for now is "... it could have been worse... it could have been worse... it could have been worse..."

While I do legitimately feel sorry for those who "lost it all" last week, I must say that I feel very good about my own trading.  I figure if I can weather an event like the CHF revaluation and keep earning double digit returns that I may just be in this game for the long run. For me this fiasco was a confidence builder... yes, even after all these years of trading it's nice to build your confidence through events like this!  This is a marathon for me, not a sprint... with the ultimate goal of not just trading for a living, but to be able to provide an even better lifestyle for my family and to use the skills I've developed into my retirement so I'm never forced to have to worry about where my next $ or "paycheck" is coming from... or worse, depending upon someone else to provide "investment returns" that I'll be living on.

Here's hoping you survived "Hurricane Swissy"... and if not, consider it a life lesson. Get up, dust yourself off, find a little more risk capital and start trading with more confidence that with the knowledge gained you can probably withstand a "Black Swan" like that next time.

If you have any questions just send me an email through the website and I'll be happy to lend an ear... as much as I legally can :-)

Jim
www.forexprofitmonster.com

Forex Profit Monster Results - September 2012 and 3rd Quarter

The September results are in, and once again there is a recurring lesson to be learned.  After two losing months in July and August, September is not only a winning month but wipes out the past two losing months and then some.  With September's win of 1,103 pips, that gives me a total of +62 pips for the 3rd quarter of 2012.

Some would read that last sentence and say, "Big deal, you mean you traded 4 Hour charts for 3 months and all you won was 62 pips... why bother???".  

If you find yourself thinking this way then you have A LOT of work to do as a trader.  The point isn't that I made 62 pips across 3 months, the point is I WAS PROFITABLE AT ALL.  To be honest, at this stage of my trading I don't really even think about how much I win or lose anymore.  I focus on my process (following my predetermined trading plan including my exit signal) and let the profits accumulate as they may.  I know from testing my system (and also trading it live for several years now) what to expect over the long term and I don't let any minor setbacks derail my thinking or my actions.  

As a trader this is the stage that you need to advance to if you want to become profitable for the long run.  There are going to be losing periods and you can't let these periods shake you out of your process.  Even if you're trading a system that will give you a "perfect" 45 degree equity curve, there are still going to be drawdowns.  If you backtest a system and see a 45 degree equity curve over several hundred trades, that doesn't mean there aren't negative portions of that curve.  If you look at the equity curve with the same inputs in a Monte Carlo simulator for a smaller number of trades (say 20 or 30 trades instead of several hundred) you could even see equity curves that look like mirror images of your "perfect" 45 degree curve that you would never want to trade because they look like they're making you go broke.  When this is happening in real time "live" trading you have to remember that these times won't last and if your system is robust and you are seeing the same types of forward results you saw in your backtesting then you just have to keep focusing on your process until the losing period ends and you catch the wins that will pull you out of your drawdown.  I believe I've shown this fact in "real time" over the past 5 years on this blog... and I've also seen the profit accumulation in my trading account... that's what keeps me going during losing times.

On to the details about September's results...  let's start with the equity graph updated for the 3rd quarter:

As you can see, not much positive gain for the 3rd Quarter, but no drawdown either.  Since I've started graphing the equity curve by quarter instead of by month there have been fewer drawdowns showing in the curve and I've recovered from them more quickly.  That's another lesson to remember... the higher the time frame, the less volatility that will show in your trading.  This is true in both the time frame you trade and the way you track your results... you need to ride out the small losing periods and stick to your game plan!

Here are the results for September on the 4 Hour chart across the 8 pairs I trade with Forex Profit Monster:

27 trades total

13 wins:  1,890 pips

14 losses:  787 pips

Total: + 1,103 pips

Win rate:  48% 

Avg win:  145 pips

Avg loss:  56 pips

Avg risk/reward:  2.58 to 1

And the results by currency pair for September:

EUR/USD  2W, 0L  +520

USD/CHF  3W, 0L  +349

EUR/JPY  1W, 2L  +160

GBP/JPY  1W, 1L  +145

GBP/USD  1W, 2L  +142

USD/CAD  2W, 2L  (-70)

USD/JPY  1W, 3L  (-70)

AUD/USD  2W, 4L  (-73)

The results for 2012 so far:

January: +891

February: +206

March: +1,667

April: (-293)

May:  +1,640

June:  +2,209

July:  (-343)

August: (-699)

September +1,103

That's a total of 6,381 pips, or an average of 709 pips per month.

For more information regarding purchasing Forex Profit Monster (or my day trading system Forex Day Monster), please visit the website at www.forexprofitmonster.com or my eBay page at http://myworld.ebay.com/jimsgr8stuff4less where I list one or two items per week at a discount.

Best of luck in your trading...

Jim

www.forexprofitmonster.com

Forex Profit Monster Results - April 2012

April 2012 was a "ranging" month, to be expected after the nice start to the year.  Some small wins, some small losses... all adding up to a small losing month, the first losing month of the year.  The nice thing is that during the month of May several large trends began on a few of the pairs and I'm currently carrying an equity profit of over 1,500 pips which is almost a guarantee of a very profitable May (as long as the trades close out in the next week or so)!

Here are the results for April:

36 total trades
12 wins for 1,172 pips
24 losses for 1,465 pips

Total for April (-293)

33% win rate
Avg win: 97
Avg loss: 61
Avg risk/reward: 1.59 to 1

And the results by currency pair as traded on the 4 Hour chart:

GBP/JPY  2W, 0L  +259
EUR/JPY  2W, 1L  +143
GBP/USD 1W, 3L   +36
EUR/USD 2W, 2L  (-21)
USD/JPY 1W, 3L  (-98)
USD/CHF 2W, 3L (-143)
AUD/USD 1W, 5L (-188)
USD/CAD 1W, 7L (-282)

The yearly results and total so far:

January: +891
February: +206
March: +1,667
April: (-293)

That's a total of +2,471 pips and an average of +617 pips per month.

For more information regarding purchasing Forex Profit Monster (or my day trading system Forex Day Monster), please visit the website at www.forexprofitmonster.com or my eBay page at http://myworld.ebay.com/jimsgr8stuff4less where I list one or two items per week at a discount.

I got a question this month through the blog about the MT4 platform slowing down and freezing while using FPM and FDM.  Unfortunately the MT4 platform is a "memory hog" and this is almost always a RAM issue with the computer being used.  The lower the time frame you are trading the more of an issue this becomes.  The only remedies are:

1.  Use fewer active charts on your platform.  You can always use one chart and "drag" the new currency pair you'd like to see into the chart from the navigator window instead of running several charts at once.

2. Trade a higher time frame that requires less of your computer's memory resources (combined with fewer charts this is even more effective).

3.  Upgrade to higher RAM for your computer.

Thanks for visiting the results blog and best of luck in your trading!

Jim
www.forexprofitmonster.com
http://myworld.ebay.com/jimsgr8stuff4less

Forex Profit Monster Results - December 2011

Here it is... the new equity curve for Forex Profit Monster. As mentioned in previous posts, the software that I use to plot the equity curve has a limitation of the number of data points you can use, and as of a couple of months ago that limit was reached. I decided to recompute the curve on a quarterly plot instead of monthly so that I can continue to post the curve on the results blog using the same software.

The funny thing is, the difference in the equity curve can teach a lesson as far as trading discipline is concerned. Look at the graph above and compare it to the last monthly graph:

Do you see how the drawdowns are more noticeable in the monthly graph than the quarterly graph? While technically the information is exactly the same, it shows that seen over a longer time frame the same results seem less volatile. While many small drawdowns can be seen in the monthly graph (every time there is a losing month there is a drawdown in the graph)... there are hardly any visible in the quarterly graph. The only one of any relevance at all is in Q3 of 2010... and even that is extremely small and lasts for only that quarter. Want to take it to the "next level"? Here's a graph of the yearly results:

See how there are NO drawdowns in the yearly results at all?

So what lesson is to be learned here as a trader? With a viable trading method that has a positive expectancy, you CAN'T allow the results of single trades (or even single weeks or months worth of trades) to cause you to lose your focus. If you become undisciplined because you have a losing streak or enter a drawdown, you may miss out on the profits that will help you to overcome the losses. You must keep focused on the "big picture"... or making money over time. Days, weeks, or even a couple of months of losses in a row don't mean anything over the long haul.

With that covered, here are the results for December:

29 trades total

11 wins: 1,251 pips

18 losses: 1,158 pips

Total pips: +93

37% win rate

Avg win: 113

Avg loss: 64

Avg risk/reward ratio: 1.76 to 1

Here are the results by currency pair on the 4 Hour chart:

AUD/USD 2W, 1L +268

EUR/USD 2W, 1L +239

EUR/JPY 1W, 0L +195

USD/CAD 2W, 1L +137

USD/CHF 1W, 2L +42

USD/JPY 0W, 5L (-118)

GBP/JPY 2W, 3L (-126)

GBP/USD 1W, 5L (-544)

And the totals for 2011:
January (-35)
February (-334)
March +869
April +2,168
May +503
June (-811)
July +225
August +221
September +2,227
October +2,634

November +1,286

December +93

That's a total of 9,046 pips in 2011, and an average per month of +753 pips. For more information about Forex Profit Monster (and my day trading system Forex Day Monster), visit the website at www.forexprofitmonster.com.

To purchase either system (or both) at a discount, visit my eBay page at http://myworld.ebay.com/jimsgr8stuff4less where I list one or two items per week at a discount.

Best of luck in your trading!

Jim

www.forexprofitmonster.com

Forex Profit Monster Results - April 2011

It's been almost a year since I've had a "windfall" month like April. It always feels good to reap the rewards of being a patient trend follower... and when the pips come flowing in like they did last month, you can't help but feel good! After all was said and done, I finished April with a profit of +2,168 pips across the 8 currency pairs I trade on the 4 Hour chart. I'm at a new account balance high, a new equity high, and I have a few trades still open that have carried over into May with a current total of about 1,500 pips of profit!

I'll get into the exact details of the month's performance in a little bit, but first the time seems right to address a question I got about 2 weeks ago from a fellow trader. I'll keep this person's name anonymous because I didn't ask to publish his question, but I think it's important to answer it and discuss the subject matter he brings up in an open forum so that others who may have the same mindset can learn.

The question posed was regarding my year end results with Forex Profit Monster over the past few years and the "sub-par" performance of the first two months of 2011:

"With regards to decreasing ROI year after year (2008: 300%, 2009: 60%, 2010: 30%, 2011: ?% do you consider FPM to be slowly losing its edge?"

I don't mean to be rude, but if this seems like a good question then you have a LOT to learn, young Jedi. :-)

The fact that the ROI has decreased each year for the past 3 years is not because the trading system is becoming less effective... it's actually quite the opposite! This system is very robust, and it adapts to the current market conditions. The reason that I experienced a 300% return in 2008 was because of the global "market meltdown" toward the end of that year. FPM helped me to achieve the incredible results in 2008 (not only a 300% return for the year, but more than a 100% profit in the month of October alone) while many other traders and investors were losing 40-50% of their account values (or more... there were a lot of account "KABOOMS" heard toward the end of 2008!). It was the "black swan" event that drove the profits for 2008... those profits were extraordinary and they can't be expected EVERY year. However sooner or later they will happen again (with things the way they are more likely sooner than later), and if you're trading a sound trend following system like FPM you'll be in the same position I was in 2008 when they do.

As far as 2009 and 2010 are concerned, all veteran traders know that after a huge event like we had in 2008 it will always take some time for markets to "settle down" again while volume and volatility move from one extreme to the other... and because of this profits during these times can be squelched. I don't know if that's what you can call a 60% and 30% return, but I guess you can if you're comparing it to 300%. However, any way you look at it even 30% is a great year. Even suggesting that a 30% return on the year is "poor" performance (as the person who asked the question seems to think) shows someone who is far removed from reality!

Here's some "homework" for you if you think a 30% return on the year is poor performance... go to your local bank and ask them how much of a return they're willing to give you on a savings account; or better yet, tell an investment adviser that you think a 60% or 30% ROI on the year is poor performance and tell them you'd like to invest with them... I'd almost guarantee they won't take you on as a customer... in fact they may call security and have you escorted from the building LOL!

If you are a new trader (or even an experienced trader) who thinks the question asked was valid, then you need to adjust your view of the market(s). Trading systems can only deliver what the market allows them to under the current market conditions. If you think you have any control other than to follow your trading plan and accept the returns available then you should probably give up trading because you're going to lose all of your money in the long run. Find someone who is a good trader/money manager, give them your money to trade and let them make you some money... or just donate the money you were going to use in your account to a worthy charity... at least then it will do some good since you're probably going to lose it all anyway! As an added bonus of doing this you can claim the tax write-off!

And here's some more advice for those of you who might feel better selecting a professional to manage your money... invest it in a trend following fund... and do the opposite of human nature and buy in during a drawdown (when the fund is actually temporarily losing money) so that you can maximize your returns when the new trends kick in! If you buy in during the "good times" (like after a 300% ROI year), you may start out in a drawdown or during a long stagnant period while the market consolidates. If you're going to be successful even placing your money with someone else, this is the way you need to learn to think!

Now with that out of the way, here are the results for April:

19 trades

11 wins: +2,876
8 losses: (-708)

Total: +2,168 pips

Win rate: 57%
Avg win: 261 pips
Avg loss: 88 pips
Avg Risk/Reward ratio: 2.96 to 1

Here are the results by currency pair:

USD/JPY 2W, 0L +472
EUR/JPY 1W, 3L +444
AUD/USD 1W, 0L +421
GBP/JPY 2W, 1L +344
EUR/USD 1W, 1L +213
USD/CHF 2W, 0L +203
USD/CAD 1W, 1L +90
GBP/USD 1W, 2L (-19)

And the up to date yearly results so far for 2011:

January (-35)
February (-334)
March +869
April +2,168

That's +2,668 pips total so far for 2011, or an average of +667 pips per month.

I hope your April was as profitable as mine, here's to a successful May!

If you'd like more information about Forex Profit Monster (and my daytrading system Forex Day Monster), visit my website at www.forexprofitmonster.com. You can purchase both systems there on the "Purchase" page.

You can also buy each system individually on my eBay page at http://myworld.ebay.com/jimsgr8stuff4less/ where I list one or two trading systems per week at a discount.

Jim
www.forexprofitmonster.com
http://myworld.ebay.com/jimsgr8stuff4less/

Forex Profit Monster Results January '10

It's another winning month for FPM in January with a total win of 823 pips. The great news is that with the pips won this month (along with almost 900 more pips of profit across 4 trades still open as we've moved into February), I've erased the drawdown entered in November and am once again at a new equity high!

Here are the results for January on the 4 Hour chart across the 8 pairs I trade:

30 trades total

11 wins - 2,395 pips
19 losses - 1,572 pips

Total: +823 pips

37% win rate

Avg win: 217
Avg loss: 82
Avg R/R: 2.64 to 1

Here are the results for January by each currency pair:

EUR/JPY 2 wins, 2 losses: +654 pips
USD/CAD 2 wins, 1 loss: +339 pips
AUD/USD 1 win, 0 losses: +237 pips
EUR/USD 2 wins, 3 losses: +182 pips
USD/JPY 1 win, 4 losses: +128 pips
USD/CHF 1 win, 1 loss: (-50 pips)
GBP/USD 1 win, 4 losses: (-241 pips)
GBP/JPY 1 win, 4 losses: (-426 pips)

That's it for January... and with the winning trades still open it looks like a good start for the month of February.

For more information about Forex Profit Monster (and my day trading system Forex Day Monster) visit my website www.forexprofitmonster.com. To purchase either trading system visit my eBay page: http://myworld.ebay.com/jimsgr8stuff4less/

Best of luck in your trading!

Jim
www.forexprofitmonster.com
http://myworld.ebay.com/jimsgr8stuff4less/

FPM Results - December 2009 & Year 2009

Hard to believe it's time to post the FPM December results and the year end results for 2009!

First things first... yes, December was a "winning" month. I'll get to more details on that, but first I'd like to talk about what's been happening since I posted the November results.

Many people have been contacting me over the past couple of weeks asking how FPM is doing after having the "worst monthly results ever" in November. Most of these emails are from people who are genuinely interested in the system performance and how I'm personally doing in my trading because they are considering purchasing FPM, but some of them are from the "detractors" who like to come out of the woodwork every time I have a losing month (which by the way, isn't often). It's amazing to me that there are actually people in this world who get satisfaction out of what they perceive as the downfall of someone who is experiencing success. I guess it's due to their inability to achieve success in the first place and it makes them feel better to think that someone else isn't successful anymore either.

What these "detractors" don't realize is they're missing the point. One month's results doesn't make or break a good trading system. No one wins every month, and if this is what you think is necessary to be a successful trader you'll NEVER be a success. Winning more pips over time than you lose is what makes a successful Forex trader (and system), and a quick look at the equity graph at the top of this post and on the homepage of www.forexprofitmonster.com shows how successful FPM has been over the past two and a half years (actually more than 3 years since I started testing it).

The other point that everyone who refers to November as the "worst month ever" for FPM is missing is that the system has had losses of over 1400 pips in a month before. These types of draw downs are typical in a trend following system... it's just that this time the calendar month ended during one of these draw downs before the trends that supply the winning pips began.

This is evident if you change the time frame that you use in posting the results. By adding a week before and after the month of November into the results, we can reduce the loss by almost 50% to well under 1,000 pips. If we combine the months of September, October and November the results become positive... + 1,175 pips, or +391 pips per month on average. Do you see how the results can be manipulated by changing the time frame used? The only important thing is the end result... is the system profitable over the long haul? Again, look at the historical equity curve posted at the top of this post and the answer is clear.

This lesson also shows how important trading psychology and money management are to a trader. If you're unwilling to continue trading after suffering losses like I did in November, you will miss out on the profits that will negate the losses. And if you're not using proper money management you definitely won't be around to enjoy those profits because the money in your account will be gone by the time the trends start again. That's why it's so important that you read and understand the material supplied with Forex Profit Monster regarding those subjects.

Now on to the December results on the 4 Hour chart across the 8 currency pairs I trade, followed by the year end results for 2009:

December 2009

32 total trades
10 wins: 1,938 pips
22 losses: 1,536 pips
Total: +402 pips

Win rate: 31%

Avg win: 193 pips
Avg loss: 69 pips
Avg Risk/Reward: 2.79 to 1

Results by pair:

EUR/USD - 2 wins, 1 loss +461 pips
GBP/JPY - 2 wins, 4 losses +304 pips
GBP/USD - 2 wins, 2 losses +173 pips
AUD/USD- 1 win, 3 losses + 74 pips
USD/CHF- 1 win, 2 losses + 37 pips
USD/JPY - 0 wins, 2 losses (-197 pips)
USD/CAD - 2 wins, 5 losses (-222 pips)
EUR/JPY - 0 wins, 3 losses (-228 pips)

That's it for December... officially a 402 pip profit for the month, but since January has started I have closed out a couple of winning trades and have opened a few more that have moved well into profit... these trades show a current profit in equity of over 900 pips which is a good sign that January will end up as a profitable month as well.

Now for the final results for the year 2009 by month:

2009

January: 3,795 pips
February: 890 pips
March: 779 pips
April: 151 pips
May: 2,494 pips
June: 253 pips
July: 775 pips
August: (-230 pips)
September: 1,530 pips
October: 1,047 pips
November: (-1,402 pips)
December: 402 pips

10 winning months: 12,116 pips
2 losing months: 1,632 pips
Total profit: 10,484 pips

Win rate: 83%
Avg pips per month: 873 pips

These results translated into a 62% account increase for the year. While it's not the 300% achieved in 2008, it's certainly still an excellent year.

So there are the results... a good December and a good 2009. What will happen in 2010? As those of you who follow this blog know I don't allow any market predictions to influence my trading, but it's only human nature to wonder what will happen and to have an opinion. If I had to make one, I'd say that the U.S. Dollar is in a precarious position. The Fed will not be able to keep interest rates at or near zero through all of 2010... and this alone will cause some longer term trends to break out in the Forex this year as the monetary policy in the U.S. turns from focusing on boosting the economy to controlling inflation. Also, if the U.S. employment doesn't experience some real growth (as opposed to the "fake" growth being propped up and falsely reported by the Obama administration) the U.S. Dollar could be in for even more large moves. Hang onto your hats... it's going to be an interesting year in the U.S. financial markets.

For more information about Forex Profit Monster (and my day trading system Forex Day Monster), visit the website at www.forexprofitmonster.com.

To purchase either (or both) systems, visit my eBay page at http://myworld.ebay.com/jimsgr8stuff4less

Whatever happens in 2010 I wish you and your family a healthy, happy and profitable New Year!

Jim

www.forexprofitmonster.com
http://myworld.ebay.com/jimsgr8stuff4less