Hard to believe it's time to post the FPM December results and the year end results for 2009!
First things first... yes, December was a "winning" month. I'll get to more details on that, but first I'd like to talk about what's been happening since I posted the November results.
Many people have been contacting me over the past couple of weeks asking how FPM is doing after having the "worst monthly results ever" in November. Most of these emails are from people who are genuinely interested in the system performance and how I'm personally doing in my trading because they are considering purchasing FPM, but some of them are from the "detractors" who like to come out of the woodwork every time I have a losing month (which by the way, isn't often). It's amazing to me that there are actually people in this world who get satisfaction out of what they perceive as the downfall of someone who is experiencing success. I guess it's due to their inability to achieve success in the first place and it makes them feel better to think that someone else isn't successful anymore either.
What these "detractors" don't realize is they're missing the point. One month's results doesn't make or break a good trading system. No one wins every month, and if this is what you think is necessary to be a successful trader you'll NEVER be a success. Winning more pips over time than you lose is what makes a successful Forex trader (and system), and a quick look at the equity graph at the top of this post and on the homepage of www.forexprofitmonster.com shows how successful FPM has been over the past two and a half years (actually more than 3 years since I started testing it).
The other point that everyone who refers to November as the "worst month ever" for FPM is missing is that the system has had losses of over 1400 pips in a month before. These types of draw downs are typical in a trend following system... it's just that this time the calendar month ended during one of these draw downs before the trends that supply the winning pips began.
This is evident if you change the time frame that you use in posting the results. By adding a week before and after the month of November into the results, we can reduce the loss by almost 50% to well under 1,000 pips. If we combine the months of September, October and November the results become positive... + 1,175 pips, or +391 pips per month on average. Do you see how the results can be manipulated by changing the time frame used? The only important thing is the end result... is the system profitable over the long haul? Again, look at the historical equity curve posted at the top of this post and the answer is clear.
This lesson also shows how important trading psychology and money management are to a trader. If you're unwilling to continue trading after suffering losses like I did in November, you will miss out on the profits that will negate the losses. And if you're not using proper money management you definitely won't be around to enjoy those profits because the money in your account will be gone by the time the trends start again. That's why it's so important that you read and understand the material supplied with Forex Profit Monster regarding those subjects.
Now on to the December results on the 4 Hour chart across the 8 currency pairs I trade, followed by the year end results for 2009:
December 2009
32 total trades
10 wins: 1,938 pips
22 losses: 1,536 pips
Total: +402 pips
Win rate: 31%
Avg win: 193 pips
Avg loss: 69 pips
Avg Risk/Reward: 2.79 to 1
Results by pair:
EUR/USD - 2 wins, 1 loss +461 pips
GBP/JPY - 2 wins, 4 losses +304 pips
GBP/USD - 2 wins, 2 losses +173 pips
AUD/USD- 1 win, 3 losses + 74 pips
USD/CHF- 1 win, 2 losses + 37 pips
USD/JPY - 0 wins, 2 losses (-197 pips)
USD/CAD - 2 wins, 5 losses (-222 pips)
EUR/JPY - 0 wins, 3 losses (-228 pips)
That's it for December... officially a 402 pip profit for the month, but since January has started I have closed out a couple of winning trades and have opened a few more that have moved well into profit... these trades show a current profit in equity of over 900 pips which is a good sign that January will end up as a profitable month as well.
Now for the final results for the year 2009 by month:
2009
January: 3,795 pips
February: 890 pips
March: 779 pips
April: 151 pips
May: 2,494 pips
June: 253 pips
July: 775 pips
August: (-230 pips)
September: 1,530 pips
October: 1,047 pips
November: (-1,402 pips)
December: 402 pips
10 winning months: 12,116 pips
2 losing months: 1,632 pips
Total profit: 10,484 pips
Win rate: 83%
Avg pips per month: 873 pips
These results translated into a 62% account increase for the year. While it's not the 300% achieved in 2008, it's certainly still an excellent year.
So there are the results... a good December and a good 2009. What will happen in 2010? As those of you who follow this blog know I don't allow any market predictions to influence my trading, but it's only human nature to wonder what will happen and to have an opinion. If I had to make one, I'd say that the U.S. Dollar is in a precarious position. The Fed will not be able to keep interest rates at or near zero through all of 2010... and this alone will cause some longer term trends to break out in the Forex this year as the monetary policy in the U.S. turns from focusing on boosting the economy to controlling inflation. Also, if the U.S. employment doesn't experience some real growth (as opposed to the "fake" growth being propped up and falsely reported by the Obama administration) the U.S. Dollar could be in for even more large moves. Hang onto your hats... it's going to be an interesting year in the U.S. financial markets.
For more information about Forex Profit Monster (and my day trading system Forex Day Monster), visit the website at www.forexprofitmonster.com.
To purchase either (or both) systems, visit my eBay page at http://myworld.ebay.com/jimsgr8stuff4less
Whatever happens in 2010 I wish you and your family a healthy, happy and profitable New Year!
Jim
www.forexprofitmonster.com
http://myworld.ebay.com/jimsgr8stuff4less
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